CDPHE: Latest statewide SARS-CoV-2 model: 1 in 194 Coloradans currently infected

Transmission control and vaccinations are critical with the new B.1.1.7 variant

Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) and the Colorado School of Public Health released an updated statewide modeling report showing that the effective reproduction number for SARS-CoV-2 statewide is just below one, and transmission control dropped from 83% to 76% over the last week. Currently 1 in 194 Coloradans are estimated to be infected. 

The modeling results show that if the B.1.1.7 variant spreads rapidly in Colorado, high levels of transmission control and/or vaccination will be critical to avoiding another large surge. 

The latest modeling provides projections based on COVID-19 hospital census data through February 22, 2021. The models are based on Colorado data and incorporate assumptions reflecting the current state of the science.

Key findings from the report:

  • The effective reproduction number is close to 1 at 0.95. Transmission control has decreased to 76% from 83% last week.
  • Estimated infection prevalence: 1 in 194 people in Colorado are currently infectious.
  • If Colorado remains on the current trajectory, state-wide hospital demand and cases will continue to decline. It will be over a month before hospital demand and infection prevalence reach levels comparable to last summer.
  • In the coming months, transmission control measures will help prevent another surge in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths while the rate of vaccination increases.
  • If the B.1.1.7 variant spreads rapidly in Colorado and transmission control lessens over the short-term, we could see another peak in hospital demand. In the bounding scenario with reduction of transmission control to 60% immediately and rapid spread of the variant, demand could exceed ICU capacity and approach hospital capacity.
  • With regard to vaccination, increased vaccine distribution and high levels of vaccine uptake will lead to more immediate benefit and would increase the level of protection should there be a surge of the B.1.1.7 variant. 
  • Mobility is stable in the Denver metro area. Restaurant visits spiked in ski regions over the President’s Day holiday weekend.

The Colorado School of Public Health (ColoradoSPH) assembled the expert group that works with the state on modeling projections. The group includes modeling scientists at the ColoradoSPH and the University of Colorado School of Medicine at the CU Anschutz Medical Campus, as well as experts from the University of Colorado Boulder, University of Colorado Denver, and Colorado State University. 

All previous modeling reports are available on the Colorado School of Public Health’s COVID-19 website. 

The state will continue to review data and model findings as the pandemic continues to inform policy decisions. Continue to stay up to date by visiting covid19.colorado.gov.

CDPHE: Latest statewide SARS-CoV-2 model: 1 in 194 Coloradans currently infected

Governor Polis takes action in response to COVID-19 pandemic

DENVER – Governor Polis took action in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Governor Polis extended an Executive Order pertaining to juvenile justice. The Governor also extended an executive order allowing the Colorado Department of Public Health & Environment’s Communities of Care program to reprioritize existing funds for COVID-19 response, and an executive order that allows veterinarians to provide telehealth services.

Governor Polis takes action in response to COVID-19 pandemic

Glenwood Springs High School girls varsity basketball team and all Basalt High School boys basketball games canceled while teams quarantine

Two separate quarantines affected basketball teams at Glenwood Springs and Basalt High Schools. All GSHS girls varsity basketball athletes had exposure to someone who tested positive for COVID-19 on February 19. All BHS boys basketball athletes had exposure to someone who tested positive for COVID-19 on February 22.

“This is a situation that we knew could come about but it doesn’t make it any easier for our players, coaches, families, or our community,” GSHS Athletic Director Craig Denney said. “I am incredibly grateful for our players and coaches and the way in which they are dealing with the situation. The fact that it happened when it did is difficult because our girls are in the hunt for the post-season tournament. The one saving grace is that they will be able to return for the last Saturday of competition, and there is a possibility that they will still make it into the tournament.”  

CHSAA policy states that group training and competition for those exposed individuals must be canceled for 14 days from the last date of exposure. Thus, BHS boys games on Friday, February 26; Saturday, February 27; Tuesday, March 2; and Thursday, March 4 are canceled at this time. GSHS girls varsity games on Tuesday, February 23; Friday, February 26; Saturday, February 27; Tuesday, March 2; and Friday, March 5 are canceled at this time. The GSHS girls JV games will still be held as scheduled. 

“Our team has worked very hard to have a successful season and compete for a playoff spot, and it is unfortunate that they will have to quarantine for the remainder of the season. However, I am incredibly proud of how the boys have handled this situation despite being disappointed in the abrupt ending of their season,” BHS Athletic Director Jason Santo said. 

During quarantine, students will attend school via distance learning and will not participate in any in-person school activities, including athletics. There is a discrepancy between CHSAA and local quarantine lengths. Because CHSAA is the authority for all athletics, there will be no athletics for 14 days, but students will be able to return to in-person learning after 10 days. 

Based on contact tracing, additional students were exposed and are quarantining at BHS. All students and families were contacted directly.

Glenwood Springs High School girls varsity basketball team and all Basalt High School boys basketball games canceled while teams quarantine

Updated Valley View COVID-19 cumulative stats

GLENWOOD SPRINGS, COLO. – The following are updated statistics from Valley View:

Valley View COVID-19 cumulative stats – 2/25/21

Specimens collected thru Valley View: 20,804
Positive results: 1,716
Patients admitted with COVID-19 since outbreak began: 233
Admitted patients discharged: 211

Definitions:

Specimens collected: These are specimens collected by Valley View providers that are tested by Valley View’s laboratory in Glenwood Springs or sent to an outside laboratory to conduct COVID-19 testing. This is a cumulative number.

Positive results: These are the number of positive COVID-19 results returned from the Valley View specimens tested. This definition is updated on April 21 to clarify that the positive results represent positive patients. This is a cumulative number.

Patients admitted with COVID-19 since outreach began: Patients with a positive COVID-19 test who have been hospitalized at Valley View. This is a cumulative number.

Admitted patients discharged: Of admitted patients with a positive COVID-19 test, number who have been discharged from Valley View Hospital. Patients may be discharged to recover at home, to hospice or to psychiatric care. This is a cumulative number.  

Additional Questions:

“From whom is Valley View collecting specimens?” Valley View is testing:

  • Patients who are symptomatic and have been referred by their primary care provider.
  • Patients undergoing medically necessary surgery.
  • Patients undergoing designated procedures that are high risk for aerosol generation.
  • Patients with a referral from their primary care provider for a test needed for work or travel.

“What kind of PCR test does Valley View offer?” Currently, Valley View has a nasopharyngeal PCR test. For the nasopharyngeal swab, a special swab of the nose occurs, it is then placed in a tube and sent for testing. 

“What is the difference between the number of patients admitted and number of patients discharged?” The difference between the number of patients and admitted patients discharged represents current hospitalized patients, patients transferred to other hospitals or those who have passed away. For example, if there are 21 patients admitted and 16 discharged, the difference is five. This is a cumulative number representing the entirety of Valley View’s efforts caring for COVID-19 patients. Therefore five total patients are hospitalized, have been transferred to a hospital as they need a higher level of care or, unfortunately, have passed away. Valley View will not offer additional details so as to protect their privacy.

“What is the turnaround for test results?”  At this point, Valley View is receiving test results same-day to 48 hours. The variability in time is due to the type of test ordered by the provider. For example, an individual experiencing a medical emergency may require a rapid test.

“The number of positive tests is not the same as admitted patients. Why?” Not all positive patients require hospitalization. For patients with mild symptoms, his/her doctor may recommend that they recover at home with specific instructions (e.g. isolation, monitor symptoms). Other positive patients may be very ill and need hospitalization.  

“What is the status of these individual hospitalized patients?” Per the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA), Valley View will not speak to the specific status of an individual patient.

Updated Valley View COVID-19 cumulative stats

Updated Grand River Health COVID-19 cumulative stats for February 25, 2021

RIFLE, COLO. – The following are updated statistics from Grand River Health:

Grand River Health COVID-19 cumulative stats – 2/25/2021

Number of individuals tested: 6,873
Positive results: 1,132
Pending results: 36
New positives since 2/23/21: 0
Patients admitted with COVID-19 since outbreak began: 43
Patients transferred: 12
Patients discharged: 31

Reported numbers are from Grand River Health only and could change at any time.

When vaccine is available, GRH is vaccinating Seniors 65+ and K-12 educators.  To know when COVID-19 vaccines become available, please watch the Grand River Health Facebook page and the website at www.grandriverhealth.org.  There are no walk ins at this time. All vaccinations will be done by appointment only by calling (970) 625-1100 (Option 1) on Wednesdays after 1 p.m. We appreciate the community’s patience.

All clinic services, hospital and specialty services are open. All patients will be screened appropriately and patients with current symptoms will be scheduled for appointments in the respiratory clinic. 

All appointments can be made by calling 625-1100. Patients are asked to wear an ear loop mask while in the facility (no gators, bandanas or buffs please).

Updated Grand River Health COVID-19 cumulative stats for February 25, 2021

State moves Garfield County from Yellow to Blue on COVID dial

GARFIELD COUNTY, CO – Garfield County has been notified by the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) that it sustained seven days of Level Blue metrics for a rolling period ending February 23. The change to Level Blue will be effective Friday, February 26 at 6 a.m.

In accordance with the most recent state public health order, counties may move to less restrictive levels if they meet and sustain metrics for one week. To officially move to Level Blue, Garfield County had to verify data and submit a letter of acknowledgment to the state. Weather-related delays from COVID testing labs located outside of the state delayed the process of confirming the move. The results of the tests that returned did not impact the numbers enough to keep the county from meeting the Level Blue threshold. 

The CDPHE Dial capacity restrictions chart provides a rough outline for the basic allowances under the dial framework. However, business owners, event planners, and other operators must consult the most current state public health order; the seventh amended Public Health Order 20-36 and follow all applicable sector specific details.  

Restrictions under Level Yellow do not vary dramatically from Level Blue. However, Garfield County Public Health has provided an overview of the major changes that affect Garfield County with page numbers for appendices by category from the latest Public Health order so that sector specific guidance and details are followed as applicable.  

For all dial color levels (including Blue):

All posted capacity numbers exclude staff. If the order language includes a percentage of capacity, or a specific number, the operator must go with whichever is less. Operators are required to continue to adhere to social distancing guidelines.

SectorYellow to BlueLEVEL BLUE: CAUTIONLEVEL YELLOW: CONCERNPublic Health                         Order DetailsNotes
Personal GatheringsNo ChangeUp to 10, no more than 2 householdsUp to 10, no more than 2 households  
Critical Businesses and Critical Government FunctionsNo Change  Appendix A p. 36-40 
Non-Critical Office-based BusinessesNo Change  Appendix B p. 41 & 42 
Critical and Non-critical RetailNo Change  Appendix B p. 41 & 42 
Field ServicesNo Change  Appendix E p. 47 & 48 
Personal ServicesNo Change  Appendix F p. 49 & 50 
Limited Healthcare SettingsNo Change  Appendix G         p. 51-53 
RestaurantsChange50% occupancy, 175 ppl per room max50% occupancy, 50 ppl per room maxAppendix H p. 54-57May not impact many restaurants in Garfield County due to size constraints.
Last CallChange12:00 a.m.11:00 p.m.  
Indoor eventsChange50% capacity, 175 ppl per room50% capacity, 50 ppl maxAppendix I p. 58 & 59Not many Garfield County locations can take advantage of this with distancing requirements.
Outdoor eventsChange50% capacity, 250 ppl max50% capacity, 175 ppl maxAppendix I p. 58 & 59Could be impactful for park and recreation departments, outdoor music events, etc.
Recreation, including gyms, rec centers, and poolsChange50% capacity, 175 ppl per room max50% capacity, 50 ppl per room maxAppendix J p. 60 & 61May impact indoor pools and some community centers.
Recreational youth and adult league sportsChange50 players max25 players maxAppendix J p. 60 & 61 
Outdoor guided activitiesChange50% capacity, 25 ppl max50% capacity, 10 ppl maxAppendix K p. 62 & 63 
Children’s Day Camps, Residential Camps, Youth Sports Day Camps and Exempt Single Skill-Building Youth CampsChange25 ppl indoors, 50 outdoors10 ppl indoors, 25 ppl outdoorsAppendix L          p. 64-66 

COMUNICADO DE PRENSA
25 de febrero 2021

El estado mueve al Condado Garfield de Amarillo a Azul

CONDADO GARFIELD, CO – El Departamento de Salud Pública y Medio Ambiente de Colorado (CDPHE, por sus siglas en inglés) notificó al Condado Garfield que mantuvo siete días de métricas bajo el Nivel Azul durante un período continuo que termino el 23 de febrero.  El cambio a Nivel Azul entrará en vigor el viernes, 26 de febrero a las 6 am

Con la orden de salud pública estatal más reciente, los condados pueden pasar a niveles menos restrictivos si cumplen y mantienen las métricas durante una semana.  Para moverse oficialmente a Nivel Azul, el Condado Garfield tuvo que verificar los datos y enviar una carta de reconocimiento al estado.  Debido a demoras relacionados por el clima, los laboratorios de pruebas para COVID ubicados fuera del estado retrasaron el proceso de confirmación para el cambio.  Los resultados de las pruebas que regresaron no afectaron los números lo suficiente como para evitar que el condado alcanzara el paso al Nivel Azul.

La Tabla de Restricciones de capacidad del Indicador del CDPHE proporciona un esquema de las asignaciones básicas bajo el cuadro del indicador. Sin embargo, dueños de negocios, planificadores de eventos y otros operadores deben consultar la orden de salud pública más actualizada del estado; la Séptima Orden de Salud Pública Enmendada 20-36 y seguir todos los detalles específicos del sector que le aplique.

Restricciones del nivel amarillo no varían drásticamente del nivel azul.  Sin embargo, Salud Pública ha proporcionado una descripción de los principales cambios que afectan al Condado Garfield con números de página para apéndices por categoría de la última orden de Salud Pública para que sectores sigan las guías y los detalles específicos que según le corresponda.

Para Todos los Niveles de Color de Esfera (Incluido el Azul):

Números de capacidad publicados excluyen al personal. Si el idioma de la orden incluye un porcentaje de capacidad o un número específico, el operador debe elegir el que sea menor.   Operadores deben seguir cumpliendo con guías de distanciamiento social.

SectorDe Amarillo a AzulNIVEL AZUL: CAUTELANIVEL AMARILLO: PREOCUPACIÓNDetalles sobre la Orden de Salud PúblicaNotas
Reuniones PersonalesNingún CambioHasta 10, no más de 2 hogaresHasta 10, no más de 2 hogares  
Empresas Y Funciones Gubernamentales CríticasNingún Cambio  Apéndice A p. 36-40 
Empresas de Oficina No CríticasNingún Cambio  Apéndice B p. 41 & 42 
Venta al por Menor Crítico y No CríticoNingún Cambio  Apéndice B p. 41 & 42 
Trabajos al Aire LibreNingún Cambio  Apéndice E p. 47 & 48 
Servicios PersonalesNingún Cambio  Apéndice F p. 49 & 50 
Sitios de Cuidado Médico LimitadoNingún Cambio  Apéndice G         p. 51-53 
RestaurantesCambio50% de cupo, 175 personas por cuarto máximo50% de cupo, 50 personas por cuarto máximoApéndice H p. 54-57Quizá no afecte a muchos restaurantes en el Condado Garfield debido a limitaciones de tamaño.
Última llamadaCambio12:00 a.m.11:00 p.m.  
Eventos InternosCambio50% capacidad, 175 personas por cuarto50% capacidad, 50 personas máximoApéndice I p. 58 & 59No muchas ubicaciones del Condado Garfield pueden aprovechar esto por requisitos de distancia.
Eventos ExternosCambio50% capacidad, 250 personas máximo50% capacidad, 175 personas máximoApéndice I p. 58 & 59Puede afectar a departamentos de parques y eventos recreativos, eventos musicales al aire libre, etc.
Recreación, incluidos gimnasios, centros de recreación y piscinasCambio50% capacidad, 175 personas por cuarto máximo50% capacidad, 50 personas por cuarto máximoApéndice J p. 60 & 61Puede afectar las piscinas al interior y algunos centros comunitarios.
Deportes de liga recreativos para jóvenes y adultosCambios50 jugadores máximo25 jugadores máximoApéndice J p. 60 & 61 
Actividades guiadas al aire libreCambio50% capacidad, 25 personas máximo50% capacity, 10 ppl maxAppendix K p. 62 & 63 
Campamentos para Niños, Campamentos Residenciales, Campamentos de Deportes Juveniles y Campamentos Juveniles Libres de Desarrollo de Habilidades IndividualesCambio25 personas adentro, 50 afuera10 personas adentro, 25 personas afueraApéndice L          p. 64-66 
State moves Garfield County from Yellow to Blue on COVID dial

CDPHE: State deactivates crisis standards of care for healthcare staffing and EMS services

The state deactivated the Colorado’s Crisis Standard of Care (CSC) Plan for healthcare staffing and emergency medical services on Feb. 11. 

Crisis standards of care are recommendations for how the medical community should allocate scarce resources, such as ventilators and intensive care unit beds, in the extreme case when patient needs exceed available resources. 

The deactivation is consistent with the declining cases of COVID-19 and hospitalizations due to COVID-19. 

The crisis standards of care for personal protective equipment (PPE) remains active. The crisis standards of care for personal protective equipment allows health care providers to extend the use of or reuse some PPE. It also allows for the use of alternate equipment to provide some protection from disease transmission, when supplies are scarce. 

Coloradans can help ensure we don’t need to return to crisis standards of care for staffing and emergency medical services by following public health protocols (hand washing, physical distancing, mask wearing, staying home when sick, and getting vaccinated when eligible).

Read a fact sheet about the crisis standards of care and visit the website for the latest information. Crisis standards of care can be reactivated if adherence to public health protocols drops and/or variants spread rapidly. 

Continue to stay up to date by visiting covid19.colorado.gov.

CDPHE: State deactivates crisis standards of care for healthcare staffing and EMS services

Governor Polis applauds confirmation from FDA that Johnson & Johnson one-dose vaccine protects against COVID-19

DENVER – Governor Polis released a statement following reports that the FDA has said the Johnson & Johnson vaccine protects against COVID-19. 

“I’m thrilled that a third safe and highly effective vaccine will soon arrive in Colorado. Having a vaccine that only requires one dose will help us move more quickly to end the pandemic, and I encourage the federal government to not only approve, but ramp up supply as quickly as possible. We are ready to use many more vaccine doses than we are currently receiving each week.”

Governor Polis applauds confirmation from FDA that Johnson & Johnson one-dose vaccine protects against COVID-19

Garfield County public Health: COVID-19 weekly summary

Storm delays, case decreases, possible dial shift 

Vaccine clinics rescheduled due to storm 

Last week’s storm disrupted vaccine clinics across the nation and at Valley View and Grand River Health hospitals. Last week’s clinics have been rescheduled for this week. Despite last week’s delay, one in six Garfield County residents have received a COVID-19 vaccine, and one in 13 are fully vaccinated with two doses.  

Theories on why COVID numbers are decreasing 

While experts do not fully know why COVID numbers are decreasing, there are a few potential factors that could be contributing.  

Across the nation and in Garfield County, numbers are declining. Experts at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IMHE), whose modeling of the virus has been used across the country, believe that vaccinations and seasonality are two possible reasons for the declines. Another theory is that cases are not being found because of a decrease in testing. The county has seen close to a 50% decrease in the number of tests performed from January to February. However, people who are not feeling ill with symptoms are unlikely to seek testing.  

Others speculate that those infected in the earlier part of winter may be in a period of natural immunity. While there is much that experts still do not understand about the novel coronavirus, it stands that residents need to remain vigilant with preventive behaviors and get vaccinated when it is their turn, and the vaccine becomes available.  

Dial change possible 

Public Health is reviewing numbers with the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) to determine if Garfield County is eligible to move from Level Yellow to Level Blue. Due to weather-related delays from COVID testing labs located outside of the state, the department is waiting on data before it is able to provide confirmation. Follow-up information is anticipated by mid-week. Restrictions under Level Yellow do not vary dramatically from Level Blue; however, the health department will provide an outline of those changes.   

Variant update 

5 confirmed cases of the B.1.1.7 (UK) variant in Garfield County as of 2-19-21
1 confirmed case of L452R (CA) variant as of 2-19-21 

Vaccination status 

Garfield County is vaccinating adults 65 and older. A list of providers offering vaccination can be found on the county vaccine page. Those 65+ having difficulty making an appointment can call 970-665-6371. School staff are also being vaccinated and should work with/contact their employers.  

The state has indicated that it will move on to the next vaccination phase in mid-March. Further details around what this process looks like for Garfield County will be available in the coming weeks.  

CURRENT STATS – these come from Johns Hopkins, covidtracking.com, CDPHE 

Geographic area Total cases Currently hospitalized Deaths Recovered 
Global 111,325,590 Not Available (N/A) 2,465,361 62,798,998 
United States 28,127,650 58,222 498,794 N/A 
Colorado 419,812 437 5,887 22,270* 
Garfield County 5,143 N/A 37 Confirmed N/A 
2 Under Investigation 
Eagle County 4,885 N/A 20 N/A 
Pitkin County 1,911 N/A N/A 
Mesa County 13,059 26 114 12,700 

*This number represents patients discharged in the state 

— 

Cases since last week 

  • Garfield County continues to see a decline in cases.  
  • 55 cases added from 2/15 – 2/21, for a rolling average of 7.9 cases added per day 
  • Declining cases provided the state an opportunity to clean up backlogged data. As a result, 21 cases were added to the overall case count that occurred in earlier reporting periods. 

Deaths 

  • 37 confirmed COVID-19 related deaths 
  • 2 deaths have occurred amongst COVID-19 cases; cause of death was not COVID-19 
  • 2 deaths under investigation          
  • 0 new death reported since last week 

STATE DIAL INFORMATION (2/15 – 2/21) 

Two-week incidence: 

Monday: 69.8 

Tuesday: 68.1  

Wednesday: 63.20 

Thursday: 59.8 

Friday: 54.8 

Saturday: 53.2 

Sunday: 53.2 

Hospitalizations, days with stable or declining hospitalizations (previous 14 days):  

Monday: 11 

Tuesday: 11 

Wednesday: 11 

Thursday: 11 

Friday: 12 

Saturday: 12 

Sunday: 12 

Test positivity, two-week period: 

Monday: 2.2% 

Tuesday: 2.2% 

Wednesday: 2.2% 

Thursday: 2.3% 

Friday: 2.2% 

Saturday: 2.5% 

Sunday: 2.9%  

*Garfield County is below the 5% benchmark. However, seeing an increase in test positivity could be an early indicator that cases might increase, too. 

VACCINATIONS 

  Valley View Grand    River Health Mountain Family    Health Center Garfield County    Public Health Long    Term Care Facilities Totals  
Vaccine administered 8,680 3,767 773 115 1,395 14,730  
1st Dose 5,721 2,687 771 115 807 10,101  
2nd Dose/fully vaccinated 2,959 1,080   588 4,629  
Phase 1A/1B.1 3,568 1,387 407 46 1,395 6,803  
70+ 2,153 1,300 277 64   3,794 
70+ fully vaccinated 1,425 700       2,125 
65-69 yrs. 1,022 261 94   1,382 
65-69 yrs. fully vaccinated 92 38       130 

*Numbers are from reporting agencies. There may be other entities administering vaccine that do not report to Garfield County. 

Garfield County public Health: COVID-19 weekly summary